LEHRSTUHL FÜR

FINANZWISSENSCHAFT

Stewart (2007, JAE) finds that being employed at low wages (compared to higher wages) increases the risk of future unemployment. The risk of unemployment does not differ significantly between current low-wage employment and current unemployment. The author concludes that 'in terms of future employment prospects, low wages are closer to unemployment than to higher-paid jobs' (p. 529). Alexander Plum shows in this paper that the result depends strongly on the thershold used to distinguish between high and low wages: applying this widely used OECD (1997) definition of low-wages substantially changes the findings of Steward (2007). With this threshold, Plum finds that low wages are helpful for significantly reducing the risk of future unemployment compared to unemployment. Moreover, the categorization of the unemployed, the included variables with reference to the educational background, the age and the age restrictions imposed on the sample and switching from gross hourly wages in nominal terms to real terms have an impact on the findings

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In diesem Aufsatz analysiert Andreas Knabe (zusammen mit Kollegen aus Halle und Merseburg) wie das soziale Wohlergehen "jenseits vom BIP" auf regionalem Niveau gemessen werden kann. Unter Nutzung von Daten des OECD Regional Well-Being Index diskutiert das Papier verschiedene Aggregationsmechanismen zur Beobachtung von Rangordnungen des Wohlergehens und analysiert deren potentielle Implikationen für die Allokation regionaler Gelder der EU.

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Alexander Plum presents the bireprob command, which fits a bivariate random-effects probit model. bireprob enables a researcher to estimate two (seemingly unrelated) nonlinear processes and to control for interrelations between their unobservables. The estimator uses quasirandom numbers (Halton draws) and maximum simulated likelihood to estimate the correlation between the error terms of both processes. The application of bireprob is illustrated in two examples: the first one uses artificial data, and the second one uses real data. Finally, in a simulation, the performance of the estimator is tested and compared with the official Stata command xtprobit.

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There is considerable debate on whether the employment and earnings prospects are better for those on low pay or for the unemployed. Alexander Plum und Gundi Knies use Understanding Society data for England and estimate dynamic random effects panel models which show robust evidence that the future unemployment risk is lower for those who are currently on low pay compared to those who are currently unemployed and the low-paid also have a higher chance than the unemployed of becoming higher-paid. These findings are most marked in neighbourhoods with high unemployment which is attributable to the much poorer prospects of the unemployed in these neighbourhoods.

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